Forecasting univariate time series data with ARIMA
In this recipe, you will explore ARIMA, using the statsmodels package for implementation. ARIMA stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, which combines three principal components: the autoregressive or AR(p)
model, the moving average or MA(q)
model, and an integrated process or I(d)
which applies differencing to the data.
An ARIMA model is characterized by the p
, d
, and q
parameters, an ARIMA model for a non-seasonal time series is described by the notation ARIMA(p, d, q)
. The p
and q
parameters denote the orders or lags; for example, an AR of order p
and MA of order q
. They are called lags as they represent the number of “past” periods we need to consider. You may also come across another reference for p
and q
, namely polynomial degrees.
ARIMA models can handle non-stationary time series data through differencing, a time series transformation technique, to make a non-stationary time series stationary. The integration...