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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2023
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781837630417
Length 282 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (20) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Prophet 4. Chapter 3: How Prophet Works 5. Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
6. Chapter 4: Handling Non-Daily Data 7. Chapter 5: Working with Seasonality 8. Chapter 6: Forecasting Holiday Effects 9. Chapter 7: Controlling Growth Modes 10. Chapter 8: Influencing Trend Changepoints 11. Chapter 9: Including Additional Regressors 12. Chapter 10: Accounting for Outliers and Special Events 13. Chapter 11: Managing Uncertainty Intervals 14. Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
15. Chapter 12: Performing Cross-Validation 16. Chapter 13: Evaluating Performance Metrics 17. Chapter 14: Productionalizing Prophet 18. Index 19. Other Books You May Enjoy

Adding continuous regressors

In this example, we will take everything from the previous example and simply add one more regressor for temperature. Let’s begin by looking at the temperature data:

Figure 9.4 – Chicago temperature over time

Figure 9.4 – Chicago temperature over time

There’s nothing too surprising about the preceding plot; daily temperatures rise in summer and fall in winter. It does look a lot like Figure 5.6 from Chapter 5, Working with Seasonality, but without that increasing trend. Clearly, Divvy ridership and the temperature rise and fall together.

Adding temperature, a continuous variable, is no different than adding binary variables. We simply add another add_regressor call to our Prophet instance, specifying 'temp' for the name, and also including the temperature forecast in our future DataFrame. As we did before, we are fitting our model on the train DataFrame we created, which excludes the final 2 weeks’ worth of data. Finally, we...

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