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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2023
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781837630417
Length 282 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (20) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Prophet 4. Chapter 3: How Prophet Works 5. Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
6. Chapter 4: Handling Non-Daily Data 7. Chapter 5: Working with Seasonality 8. Chapter 6: Forecasting Holiday Effects 9. Chapter 7: Controlling Growth Modes 10. Chapter 8: Influencing Trend Changepoints 11. Chapter 9: Including Additional Regressors 12. Chapter 10: Accounting for Outliers and Special Events 13. Chapter 11: Managing Uncertainty Intervals 14. Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
15. Chapter 12: Performing Cross-Validation 16. Chapter 13: Evaluating Performance Metrics 17. Chapter 14: Productionalizing Prophet 18. Index 19. Other Books You May Enjoy

Creating multi-day holidays

Sometimes, a holiday or other special event will span several days. Fortunately, Prophet includes functionality to handle these scenarios via the window arguments. The holidays DataFrame we have been building to populate our holidays in the previous examples can include the optional columns of 'lower_window' and 'upper_window'. These columns specify additional days either before or after the main holiday that Prophet will model.

For example, in the previous example, we modeled Christmas and Christmas Eve as two different holidays. Another method would have been just to model Christmas but include a 'lower_window' argument of 1, telling Prophet to include a single day before Christmas as part of the holiday. This assumes, of course, that Christmas Eve will always fall on the day before Christmas. If, however, Christmas Eve were a holiday that floated and did not always fall immediately before Christmas, this window method...

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