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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2023
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781837630417
Length 282 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (20) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Prophet 4. Chapter 3: How Prophet Works 5. Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
6. Chapter 4: Handling Non-Daily Data 7. Chapter 5: Working with Seasonality 8. Chapter 6: Forecasting Holiday Effects 9. Chapter 7: Controlling Growth Modes 10. Chapter 8: Influencing Trend Changepoints 11. Chapter 9: Including Additional Regressors 12. Chapter 10: Accounting for Outliers and Special Events 13. Chapter 11: Managing Uncertainty Intervals 14. Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
15. Chapter 12: Performing Cross-Validation 16. Chapter 13: Evaluating Performance Metrics 17. Chapter 14: Productionalizing Prophet 18. Index 19. Other Books You May Enjoy

Interpreting the forecast DataFrame

Now, let’s take a look at that forecast DataFrame by displaying the first three rows (I’ve transposed it here, in order to better see the column names on the page) and learn how these values were used in the preceding chart:

forecast.head(3).T

After running that command, you should see the following table printed out:

Figure 2.4 – The forecast DataFrame

Figure 2.4 – The forecast DataFrame

The following is a description of each of the columns in the forecast DataFrame:

  • 'ds': The date stamp or timestamp that the values in that row pertain to
  • 'trend': The value of the trend component alone
  • 'yhat_lower': The lower bound of the uncertainty interval around the final prediction
  • 'yhat_upper': The upper bound of the uncertainty interval around the final prediction
  • 'trend_lower': The lower bound of the uncertainty interval around the trend component
  • 'trend_upper...
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