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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2023
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781837630417
Length 282 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (20) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Prophet 4. Chapter 3: How Prophet Works 5. Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
6. Chapter 4: Handling Non-Daily Data 7. Chapter 5: Working with Seasonality 8. Chapter 6: Forecasting Holiday Effects 9. Chapter 7: Controlling Growth Modes 10. Chapter 8: Influencing Trend Changepoints 11. Chapter 9: Including Additional Regressors 12. Chapter 10: Accounting for Outliers and Special Events 13. Chapter 11: Managing Uncertainty Intervals 14. Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
15. Chapter 12: Performing Cross-Validation 16. Chapter 13: Evaluating Performance Metrics 17. Chapter 14: Productionalizing Prophet 18. Index 19. Other Books You May Enjoy

Building a simple model in Prophet

The longest record of direct measurements of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was started in March 1958 by Charles David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Keeling was based in La Jolla, California, but received permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use its facility located 2 miles above sea level on the northern slope of Mauna Loa, a volcano on the island of Hawaii, to collect CO2 samples. At that elevation, Keeling’s measurements would be unaffected by local releases of CO2, such as from nearby factories.

In 1961, Keeling published the data he had collected thus far, establishing that there was strong seasonal variation in CO2 levels and that they were rising steadily, a trend that later became known as the Keeling Curve. By May 1974, the NOAA had begun their own parallel measurements and have continued since then. The Keeling Curve graph is as follows:

Figure 2.2 – The Keeling Curve, showing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
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