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Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using Meta's advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2023
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781837630417
Length 282 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
Languages
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (20) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1: Getting Started with Prophet
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Prophet 4. Chapter 3: How Prophet Works 5. Part 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
6. Chapter 4: Handling Non-Daily Data 7. Chapter 5: Working with Seasonality 8. Chapter 6: Forecasting Holiday Effects 9. Chapter 7: Controlling Growth Modes 10. Chapter 8: Influencing Trend Changepoints 11. Chapter 9: Including Additional Regressors 12. Chapter 10: Accounting for Outliers and Special Events 13. Chapter 11: Managing Uncertainty Intervals 14. Part 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
15. Chapter 12: Performing Cross-Validation 16. Chapter 13: Evaluating Performance Metrics 17. Chapter 14: Productionalizing Prophet 18. Index 19. Other Books You May Enjoy

Creating a Prophet performance metrics DataFrame

Now that you’ve learned what the different options are for performance metrics in Prophet, let’s start coding and see how to access them. We’ll use the same online retail sales data we used in Chapter 12, Performing Cross-Validation. Along with our usual imports, we are going to add the performance_metrics function from Prophet’s diagnostics package and the plot_cross_validation_metric function from the plot package:

import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from prophet import Prophet
from prophet.plot import add_changepoints_to_plot
from prophet.diagnostics import cross_validation
from prophet.diagnostics import performance_metrics
from prophet.plot import plot_cross_validation_metric

Next, let’s load the data, create our forecast, and plot the results:

df = pd.read_csv('online_retail.csv')
df.columns = ['ds', 'y']
model = Prophet(yearly_seasonality...
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