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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Summary

Hopefully, you experienced no issues installing Prophet on your machine at the beginning of this chapter. The potential challenge of getting the Stan dependency installed is greatly eased by using the Anaconda distribution of Python. After installation, we looked at the carbon dioxide levels measured in the atmosphere two miles above the Pacific Ocean, at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. We built our first Prophet model and, in just 12 lines of code, were able to forecast the next 10 years of carbon dioxide levels.

After that, we inspected the forecast DataFrame and saw the rich results that Prophet outputs. Finally, we plotted the components of the forecast - the trend, yearly seasonality, and weekly seasonality, to better understand the data's behavior.

There is a lot more to Prophet than just this simple example, though. The remainder of this book will be spent demonstrating all of the parameters and additional features available that allow you to have greater control over...

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