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Bayesian Analysis with Python

You're reading from   Bayesian Analysis with Python Introduction to statistical modeling and probabilistic programming using PyMC3 and ArviZ

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Product type Paperback
Published in Dec 2018
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781789341652
Length 356 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
Languages
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Author (1):
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Osvaldo Martin Osvaldo Martin
Author Profile Icon Osvaldo Martin
Osvaldo Martin
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Table of Contents (11) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Thinking Probabilistically FREE CHAPTER 2. Programming Probabilistically 3. Modeling with Linear Regression 4. Generalizing Linear Models 5. Model Comparison 6. Mixture Models 7. Gaussian Processes 8. Inference Engines 9. Where To Go Next?
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Bayes factors

A common alternative to evaluate and compare models in the Bayesian world (at least in some of its countries) are Bayes factors. To understand what Bayes factors are, let's write Bayes' theorem one more time (we have not done so for a while!):

Here, represents the data. We can make the dependency of the inference on a given model explicit and write:

The term in the denominator is known as marginal likelihood (or evidence), as you may remember from the first chapter. When doing inference, we do not need to compute this normalizing constant, so in practice, we often compute the posterior up to a constant factor. However, for model comparison and model averaging, the marginal likelihood is an important quantity. If our main objective is to choose only one model, the best one, from a set of models, we can just choose the one with the largest . As a general...

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