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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Adding binary regressors

The first thing to consider with additional regressors, whether binary or continuous, is that you must have known future values for your entire forecast period. This isn't a problem with holidays because we know exactly when each future holiday will occur. All future values must either be known, as with holidays, or must have been forecast themselves separately. You must be careful though when building a forecast using data that itself has been forecast: the error in the first forecast will compound the error in the second forecast, and the errors will continuously pile up.

If one variable is much easier to forecast than another, however, then this may be a case where these stacked forecasts do make sense. A hierarchical time series is an example case where this may be useful: you may find good results by forecasting the more reliable daily values of one time series, for instance, and using those values to forecast hourly values of another time series...

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