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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Summary

In this chapter, you first learned how to add the default holidays for a country and then went a bit deeper by adding in any state or province holidays. After that, you learned how to add custom holidays and expanded this technique to adjust for holidays that span multiple days. Finally, you learned what regularization is and how it is used to control overfitting, and how to apply it globally to all holidays in your model or more granularly by specifying different regularization for each individual holiday.

Holidays often cause massive spikes in time series and ignoring their effects will cause Prophet to perform very poorly in its forecast results. The tools in this chapter will allow your models to accommodate these external events and provide a way to predict the effects running into the future.

In the next chapter, we'll look at the different growth modes available in Prophet. So far, all our models have had linear growth but that may not be the only mode you...

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