The mission
In the United States, for the last two decades, private companies and nonprofits have developed criminal Risk Assessment Instruments/Tools (RAIs), most of which employ statistical models. As many states can no longer afford their large prison populations, these methods have increased in popularity, guiding judges and parole boards through every step of the prison system.
These are high-impact decisions that can determine if a person is released from prison. Can we afford for these decisions to be wrong? Can we accept the recommendations from these systems without understanding why they were made? Worst of all, we don’t exactly know how an assessment was made. The risk is usually calculated with a white-box model, but, in practice, a black-box model is used because it is proprietary. Predictive performance is also relatively low, with median AUC scores for a sample of nine tools ranging between 0.57 and 0.74 according to the paper Performance of Recidivism Risk...