Probabilities are Still Just Probabilities, Not Facts

FiveThirtyEight.com is one of the most respected analytics sites on the internet. The quality of their predictions is legendary. In the 2008 presidential election of Obama versus McCain, FiveThirtyEight (and its founder Nate Silver) correctly predicted the presidential winner in 49 out of 50 states, as well as the winner of all 35 Senate races. As if that was not enough, in the 2012 presidential election of Obama versus Romney, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted not only Barack Obama's victory but the outcome of the presidential contest in all 50 states.With that track record as background, FiveThirtyEight predicted a 58.5% probability that the Republicans would gain control of the U.S. Senate by taking 51 or more seats in the 2022 midterm elections, as highlighted in the analysis in the below image. ADD

Figure 6.4: FiveThirtyEight 2022 Midterm Elections Predictions

Unfortunately, even the best and brightest can’t always...