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SAS for Finance

You're reading from   SAS for Finance Forecasting and data analysis techniques with real-world examples to build powerful financial models

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2018
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781788624565
Length 306 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Harish Gulati Harish Gulati
Author Profile Icon Harish Gulati
Harish Gulati
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Table of Contents (9) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Time Series Modeling in the Financial Industry FREE CHAPTER 2. Forecasting Stock Prices and Portfolio Decisions using Time Series 3. Credit Risk Management 4. Budget and Demand Forecasting 5. Inflation Forecasting for Financial Planning 6. Managing Customer Loyalty Using Time Series Data 7. Transforming Time Series – Market Basket and Clustering 8. Other Books You May Enjoy

Forecasting process

The forecasting process, illustrated in the following diagram, represents a typical process flow that can be applied to both time series and other models. There isn't a stage in the process that is more important than others. However, a good understanding of the business problem should be the building block of any modeling process:

Figure 2.2: Forecasting process

Let us walk through the process of forecasting:

  1. Define the business problem and state what the model expects to achieve.
  2. Collect data from various sources and systems and transform it to clean data.
  3. Plot the data, run statistical tests, fit the model, and interpret the results.
  4. Validate the model by using a holdout sample.
  5. Obtain a model sign after it meets the technical and the business requirements. Integrate it into the business process.

Most modelers spend a disproportionate amount of time...

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