Calculating Goal probability

One way we might evaluate whether our Goal is plausible at all is by just considering the expected return and time horizon. We can use a simple function to compare our Goal target amount to the amount achieved with our expected return at the end of our time horizon:

def checkGoalPlausible(df: pd.DataFrame, goalValue) -> bool:
  maxValue = df['value'].max()
  if maxValue >= goalValue:
    return True
  else:
    return False

If we run this with our Goal, it should undoubtedly return False. While this is a simple heuristic, we would wish to quantify this in more exact terms to know how realistic our Goals are.

We’ll now move past simple projections to return to the concept of Goal probability, which we briefly touched on in Chapter 6, in the context of Goal priority. These two are naturally connected, as we can use Goal probability to establish a reasonable...