Example – predicting auto insurance expenses using linear regression
For an automobile insurance company to make money, it needs to collect more in membership premiums than it spends on claims paid to its beneficiaries in case of vehicle theft, damages, or loss of life in accidents. Consequently, insurers invest a great deal of time and money to develop models that accurately forecast medical expenses for the insured population. This is the field known as actuarial science, which uses sophisticated statistical techniques to estimate risk across insured populations.
Insurance expenses are difficult to predict accurately for individuals because accidents, and especially fatal accidents, are thankfully relatively rare—a bit over one fatality per 100 million vehicle miles travelled in the United States—yet, when they do happen, they are extremely costly. Moreover, the specific conditions leading to any given accident are almost completely random. An excellent driver with...