Significance
Our minds, for several centuries, have been used to a much slower pace of change. Our brains have been wired to favor predictability, certainty, and risk aversion. However, the basic properties of complexity are unpredictability and uncertainty. We have a hindsight bias which makes us believe that things are predictable, even when they are not.
According to Peter Green, who led a grassroots Agile transformation at Adobe from 2005 to 2015:
"Hindsight bias leads us to treat complex work as predictable. Instead of using empirical processes based on transparency and frequent inspection and adaptation loops, we do extensive up-front planning and implement stricter controls to meet the original plan. Years of "lessons learned" sessions caused us to move further and further from the right approach." [i]
Until very recently, and perhaps even today, our formal education was largely oriented towards a linear way of thinking, tight cause-effect relationships, frowning on ambiguity, rewarding...
