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Bayesian Analysis with Python

You're reading from   Bayesian Analysis with Python Introduction to statistical modeling and probabilistic programming using PyMC3 and ArviZ

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Product type Paperback
Published in Dec 2018
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781789341652
Length 356 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
Languages
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Author (1):
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Osvaldo Martin Osvaldo Martin
Author Profile Icon Osvaldo Martin
Osvaldo Martin
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Table of Contents (11) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Thinking Probabilistically FREE CHAPTER 2. Programming Probabilistically 3. Modeling with Linear Regression 4. Generalizing Linear Models 5. Model Comparison 6. Mixture Models 7. Gaussian Processes 8. Inference Engines 9. Where To Go Next?
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Markovian methods

There is a family of related methods, collectively known as MCMC methods. These stochastic methods allow us to get samples from the true posterior distribution as long as we are able to compute the likelihood and the prior point-wise. While this is the same condition that we need for the grid-approach, MCMC methods outperform the grid approximation. The is because MCMC methods are capable of taking more samples from higher-probability regions than lower ones. In fact, an MCMC method will visit each region of the parameter-space in accordance to their relative probabilities. If region A is twice as likely as region B, then we are going to get twice as many samples from A as from B. Hence, even if we are not capable of computing the whole posterior analytically, we could use MCMC methods to take samples from it.

At the most fundamental level, basically everything...

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