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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Adding continuous regressors

In this example, we will take everything from the previous example and simply add in one more regressor for temperature. Let's begin by looking at the temperature data:

Figure 8.4 – Chicago temperature over time

There's nothing too surprising about the preceding plot; daily temperatures rise in summer and fall in winter. It does look a lot like Figure 4.6 from Chapter 4, Seasonality, but without that increasing trend. Clearly, Divvy ridership and the temperature rise and fall together.

Adding temperature, a continuous variable, is no different than adding binary variables. We simply add another add_regressor call to our Prophet instance, specifying 'temp' for the name, and also including the temperature forecast in our future DataFrame. As we did before, we are fitting our model on the train DataFrame we created, which excludes the final 2 weeks' worth of data. Finally, we plot the components to...

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