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Hands-On Machine Learning for Cybersecurity
Hands-On Machine Learning for Cybersecurity

Hands-On Machine Learning for Cybersecurity: Safeguard your system by making your machines intelligent using the Python ecosystem

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Hands-On Machine Learning for Cybersecurity

Time Series Analysis and Ensemble Modeling

In this chapter, we will study two important concepts of machine learning: time series analysis and ensemble learning. These are important concepts in the field of machine learning.

We use these concepts to detect anomalies within a system. We analyze historic data and compare it with the current data to detect deviations from normal activities.

The topics that will be covered in this chapter are the following:

  • Time series and its different classes
  • Time series decomposition
  • Analysis of time series in cybersecurity
  • Prediction of DDoS attack
  • Ensemble learning methods and voting ensemble methods to detect cyber attacks

What is a time series?

A time series is defined as an array of data points that is arranged with respect to time. The data points are indicative of an activity that takes place at a time interval. One popular example is the total number of stocks that were traded at a certain time interval with other details like stock prices and their respective trading information at each second. Unlike a continuous time variable, these time series data points have a discrete value at different points of time. Hence, these are often referred to as discrete data variables. Time series data can be gathered over any minimum or maximum amount of time. There is no upper or lower bound to the period over which data is collected.

Time series data has the following:

  • Specific instances of time forming the timestamp
  • A start timestamp and an end timestamp
  • The total elapsed time for the instance

The...

Classes of time series models

Based on the use-case type that we have in hand, the relationship between the number of temporal sequences and time can be distributed among multiple classes. Problems bucketed into each of these classes have different machine learning algorithms to handle them.

Stochastic time series model

Stochastic processes are random mathematical objects that can be defined using random variables. These data points are known to randomly change over time. Stochastic processes can again be divided into three main classes that are dependent on historic data points. They are autoregressive (AR) models, the moving average (MA) model, and integrated (I) models. These models combine to form the autoregressive...

Time series decomposition

Time series decomposition is a better way of understanding the data in hand. Decomposing the model creates an abstract model that can be used for generalization of the data. Decomposition involves identifying trends and seasonal, cyclical, and irregular components of the data. Making sense of data with these components is the systematic type of modeling.

In the following section, we will look at these recurring properties and how they help analyze time series data.

Level

We have discussed moving averages with respect to time series before. The level can be defined as the average or mean of a bunch of time series data points.

...

Use cases for time series

In the Signal processing section, we will discuss the different fields where time series are utilized to extract meaningful information from very large datasets. Be it social media analysis, click stream trends, or system log generations, time series can be used to mine any data that has a similar time-sensitive approach to data collection and storage.

Signal processing

Digital signal processing uses time series analysis to identify a signal from a mixture of noise and signals. Signal processing uses various methods to perform this identification, like smoothing, correlation, convolution, and so on. Time series helps measure deviations from the stationary behaviors of signals. These drifts or deviations...

Time series analysis in cybersecurity

Computer attacks interrupt day-to-day services and cause data losses and network interruption. Time series analyses are popular machine learning methods that help to quantitatively detect anomalies or outliers in data, by either data fitting or forecasting. Time series analysis helps thwarting compromises and keep information loss to a minimum. The following graph shows the attacks mitigated on a routed platform:

Time series trends and seasonal spikes

Time series analysis can be used to detect attack attempts, like failed logins, using a time series model. Plotting login attempts identifies spikes (/) in failed logins. Such spikes are indicative of account takeover (ATO).

Time series identify another cyber security use case—data exfiltration is the process in which the unauthorized transfer of data takes place from a computer system to a malicious location. Time series can identify huge network data packets being transported out of the network. Data exfiltration could be because of either an outsider compromise or an insider threat. In a later section of the chapter, we will use ensemble learning methods to identify the source of the attack.

We will learn the details of the attack in the next section. The goal of this chapter is to be able to detect reconnaissance so that we are...

Predicting DDoS attacks

Now that we have identified a seasonality, the trend in the network data will baseline the data by fitting to a stochastic model. We have already defined systematic parameters, and we will apply them next.

ARMA

This is a weak stochastic stationary process, such that, when provided with a time series Xt, ARMA helps to forecast future values with respect to current values. ARMA consists of two actions:

  • The autoregression (p)
  • The moving average (q)

  • C = Constant
  • Et = White noise
  • θ = Parameters

ARIMA

ARIMA is a generalized version of ARMA...

Ensemble learning methods

Ensemble learning methods are used to improve performance by taking the cumulative results from multiple models to make a prediction. Ensemble models overcome the problem of overfitting by considering outputs of multiple models. This helps in overlooking modeling errors from any one model.

Ensemble learning can be a problem for time series models because every data point has a time dependency. However, if we choose to look at the data as a whole, we can overlook time dependency components. Time dependency components are conventional ensemble methods like bagging, boosting, random forests, and so on.

Types of ensembling

Ensembling of models to derive the best model performance can happen in many ways...

Voting ensemble method to detect cyber attacks

In the voting ensemble method, every model gets to make a prediction about the results of the model, and the decision on the model result is made on the majority votes or predictions made. There is another advanced level of the voting the ensemble method known as weighted voting. Here certain predictor models have more weights associated with their votes and thus get to make more privileged predictions:

  1. We start by importing the respective libraries:
import pandas
from sklearn import model_selection
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn.svm import SVC
from sklearn.ensemble import VotingClassifier
  1. We detect a cyber attack via a voting mechanism where we use algorithms like SCV, decision tree, and logistic regression. We finally use the voting classifier to choose...

Summary

In this chapter, we dealt with the theory of time series analysis and ensemble learning and with real-life use cases where these methods can be implemented. We took one of the most frequent examples of cybersecurity, DoS attacks, and introduced a method that will capture them beforehand.

In the next chapter, we will learn about segregating legitimate and lousy URLs.

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Key benefits

  • Learn machine learning algorithms and cybersecurity fundamentals
  • Automate your daily workflow by applying use cases to many facets of security
  • Implement smart machine learning solutions to detect various cybersecurity problems

Description

Cyber threats today are one of the costliest losses that an organization can face. In this book, we use the most efficient tool to solve the big problems that exist in the cybersecurity domain. The book begins by giving you the basics of ML in cybersecurity using Python and its libraries. You will explore various ML domains (such as time series analysis and ensemble modeling) to get your foundations right. You will implement various examples such as building system to identify malicious URLs, and building a program to detect fraudulent emails and spam. Later, you will learn how to make effective use of K-means algorithm to develop a solution to detect and alert you to any malicious activity in the network. Also learn how to implement biometrics and fingerprint to validate whether the user is a legitimate user or not. Finally, you will see how we change the game with TensorFlow and learn how deep learning is effective for creating models and training systems

Who is this book for?

This book is for the data scientists, machine learning developers, security researchers, and anyone keen to apply machine learning to up-skill computer security. Having some working knowledge of Python and being familiar with the basics of machine learning and cybersecurity fundamentals will help to get the most out of the book

What you will learn

  • Use machine learning algorithms with complex datasets to implement cybersecurity concepts
  • Implement machine learning algorithms such as clustering, k-means, and Naive Bayes to solve real-world problems
  • Learn to speed up a system using Python libraries with NumPy, Scikit-learn, and CUDA
  • Understand how to combat malware, detect spam, and fight financial fraud to mitigate cyber crimes
  • Use TensorFlow in the cybersecurity domain and implement real-world examples
  • Learn how machine learning and Python can be used in complex cyber issues
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Publication date : Dec 31, 2018
Length: 318 pages
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Language : English
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Publication date : Dec 31, 2018
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Table of Contents

12 Chapters
Basics of Machine Learning in Cybersecurity Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Time Series Analysis and Ensemble Modeling Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Segregating Legitimate and Lousy URLs Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Knocking Down CAPTCHAs Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Using Data Science to Catch Email Fraud and Spam Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Efficient Network Anomaly Detection Using k-means Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Decision Tree and Context-Based Malicious Event Detection Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Catching Impersonators and Hackers Red Handed Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Changing the Game with TensorFlow Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Financial Fraud and How Deep Learning Can Mitigate It Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Case Studies Chevron down icon Chevron up icon
Other Books You May Enjoy Chevron down icon Chevron up icon

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Full star icon Full star icon Half star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon 2.7
(6 Ratings)
5 star 33.3%
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1 star 33.3%
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Endoplasmic Reticulum May 16, 2019
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Still reading it
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Navya Nov 16, 2019
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Very well written and helped clear the concepts. However, wish this book was not restricted only to Python and even snippets of R were included.
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countermode Feb 05, 2020
Full star icon Full star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon 2
This e-book cover topics that I was seeking suitable material for, so I was highly delighted to find a book on those topics. However, I soon discovered that the book is not at all self-explanatory in the sense that the author throws several important notions at the reader without any reference. For instance, in the chapter on time series analysis the author mentions ACF and PACF, "explaining" them with a few sentences. It took me several video lectures on YouTube (which are, of course, of diverse quality) to get the idea and some background in order to follow the author. I don't think that the concepts of ACF, PACF, auto-regression, moving average, ARMA, ARIMA etc. are "common folklore", so I wish the author had introduced them more carefully, or at least, if he had provided suitable references. What is good, at least, is that the reader gets the key words to look for so with quite some additional effort it is possible to follow the author.In the end, given the price, I am utterly disappointed; I've seen much better literature for much lower prices.
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Alvaro Feb 18, 2020
Full star icon Full star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon 2
I totally agree with and confirm the truth of the comment made by "countermode" He is fully right.The author of the book has touched upon a tremendous amount of complex concepts, something that you can tell in the Table of Contents, but then you see that she just devotes a couple of lines leaving the matter unexplained. Therefore, the reader is left to look for explanations elsewhere, like tutorials on the internet, videos etc.The reason is obvious. She has written a book of 300 pages, but the topics that she mentions would require around 1500-1800 pages.On page 46 she just breezes in about correlation time series and provides no explanation about the graphic that is shown. This is a pattern throughout the book.So, consider that you are going to have to devote about 10 times more time to learn about the topics she mentions.
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Luciano Montenegro Oct 01, 2023
Full star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon Empty star icon 1
Caso, a intenção foi ser prático com o material do livro, poderia ter tido um cuidado maior nos códigos utilizados. E apresentar referências para aprofundar determinados aspectos de ML. Achei o valor muito alto para o conteúdo apresentado. Os códigos simplesmente precisam ser atualizados para versão mais atuais de python.
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