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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

You're reading from   Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2022
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781803247731
Length 324 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Fernando Roque Fernando Roque
Author Profile Icon Fernando Roque
Fernando Roque
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Table of Contents (19) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
2. Chapter 1: Understanding Data Segmentation FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Applying Linear Regression 4. Chapter 3: What is Time Series? 5. Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
6. Chapter 4: Introduction to Data Grouping 7. Chapter 5: Finding the Optimal Number of Single Variable Groups 8. Chapter 6: Finding the Optimal Number of Multi-Variable Groups 9. Chapter 7: Analyzing Outliers for Data Anomalies 10. Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
11. Chapter 8: Finding the Relationship between Variables 12. Chapter 9: Building, Training, and Validating a Linear Model 13. Chapter 10: Building, Training, and Validating a Multiple Regression Model 14. Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series
15. Chapter 11: Testing Data for Time Series Compliance 16. Chapter 12: Working with Time Series Using the Centered Moving Average and a Trending Component 17. Chapter 13: Training, Validating, and Running the Model 18. Other Books You May Enjoy

Computing coefficient significance – t-statistics and p-value

In this section, we will see four statistical probes to verify whether the variables have a strong enough relationship to build a predictive model. First, we have to understand a chart with data variables, a linear regression model, and the separation between the data points and the straight line.

The statistical tests are as follows:

  • Coefficient of determination
  • Coefficient of correlation
  • t-statistics
  • P-value

Now, we are going to explain the basic concepts to test whether the variables have a relationship to build a predictive model. Figure 9.8 shows the following:

  • The distance between the expected values and the linear regression model. These are the errors of the model or the unexplained variations.
  • The distance between the expected values' average line and the regression model. This is the explained variation.
  • The total variation, which is the sum of the...
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