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Practical Predictive Analytics

You're reading from   Practical Predictive Analytics Analyse current and historical data to predict future trends using R, Spark, and more

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Product type Paperback
Published in Jun 2017
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781785886188
Length 576 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Ralph Winters Ralph Winters
Author Profile Icon Ralph Winters
Ralph Winters
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Table of Contents (13) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Getting Started with Predictive Analytics FREE CHAPTER 2. The Modeling Process 3. Inputting and Exploring Data 4. Introduction to Regression Algorithms 5. Introduction to Decision Trees, Clustering, and SVM 6. Using Survival Analysis to Predict and Analyze Customer Churn 7. Using Market Basket Analysis as a Recommender Engine 8. Exploring Health Care Enrollment Data as a Time Series 9. Introduction to Spark Using R 10. Exploring Large Datasets Using Spark 11. Spark Machine Learning - Regression and Cluster Models 12. Spark Models – Rule-Based Learning

Exponential moving average

For a simple moving average (SMA), equal weight is given to all data points, regardless of how old they are or how recently they occurred. An exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to recent data, under the assumption that the future is more likely to look like the recent past, rather than the older past.

The EMA is actually a much simpler calculation. An EMA begins by calculating a simple moving average. When it reaches the specified number of lookback periods (n), it computes the current value by assigning different weights to the current value,and to the previous value.

This weighting is specified by the smoothing (or ratio) factor. When ratio=1, the predicted value is entirely based upon the last time value. For ratios b=0, the prediction is based upon the average of the entire lookback period. Therefore, the closer the smoothing factor...

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