Early adopters don't make your market

When you think about going to market, or even look hard at the market, the customers that technical entrepreneurs most easily relate to and depend on are early adopters. The conventional wisdom is that early adopters are the ideal target for new products, to get business rolling. Early adopters are great, but I see two pitfalls with any conclusions based primarily on early adopters; first, the size of this group may not be as large as you think, and secondly, their feedback may lead you directly away from your real target market of mainstream customers.

The term "early adopters" relates to the people who are eager to try almost any new technology products, and originates from Everett M. Rogers' book, Diffusion of Innovations (http://www.amazon.com/Diffusion-Innovations-5th-Everett-Rogers/dp/0743222091). Early adopters are usually no more than 10 to 15 percent of the ultimate market potential, and marketing tothem may be necessary but not sufficient in...