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Python for Finance

You're reading from   Python for Finance Apply powerful finance models and quantitative analysis with Python

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Product type Paperback
Published in Jun 2017
Publisher
ISBN-13 9781787125698
Length 586 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
Languages
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Author (1):
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Yuxing Yan Yuxing Yan
Author Profile Icon Yuxing Yan
Yuxing Yan
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Toc

Table of Contents (17) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Python Basics FREE CHAPTER 2. Introduction to Python Modules 3. Time Value of Money 4. Sources of Data 5. Bond and Stock Valuation 6. Capital Asset Pricing Model 7. Multifactor Models and Performance Measures 8. Time-Series Analysis 9. Portfolio Theory 10. Options and Futures 11. Value at Risk 12. Monte Carlo Simulation 13. Credit Risk Analysis 14. Exotic Options 15. Volatility, Implied Volatility, ARCH, and GARCH Index

Simulating an ARCH (1) process

It is a good idea that we simulate an ARCH (1) process and have a better understanding of the volatility clustering, which means that high volatility is usually followed by a high-volatility period while low volatility is usually followed by a low-volatility period. The following code reflects this phenomenon:

import scipy as sp 
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
#
sp.random.seed(12345)
n=1000        # n is the number of observations
n1=100        # we need to drop the first several observations 
n2=n+n1       # sum of two numbers
#
a=(0.1,0.3)   # ARCH (1) coefficients alpha0 and alpha1, see Equation (3)
errors=sp.random.normal(0,1,n2) 
t=sp.zeros(n2)
t[0]=sp.random.normal(0,sp.sqrt(a[0]/(1-a[1])),1) 
for i in range(1,n2-1):
    t[i]=errors[i]*sp.sqrt(a[0]+a[1]*t[i-1]**2) 
    y=t[n1-1:-1] # drop the first n1 observations 
#
plt.title('ARCH (1) process')
x=range(n) 
plt.plot(x,y)
plt.show()

From the following graph, we see that indeed a higher volatility...

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