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Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading

You're reading from   Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading Predictive models to extract signals from market and alternative data for systematic trading strategies with Python

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Product type Paperback
Published in Jul 2020
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781839217715
Length 820 pages
Edition 2nd Edition
Languages
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Author (1):
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Stefan Jansen Stefan Jansen
Author Profile Icon Stefan Jansen
Stefan Jansen
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Table of Contents (27) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Machine Learning for Trading – From Idea to Execution 2. Market and Fundamental Data – Sources and Techniques FREE CHAPTER 3. Alternative Data for Finance – Categories and Use Cases 4. Financial Feature Engineering – How to Research Alpha Factors 5. Portfolio Optimization and Performance Evaluation 6. The Machine Learning Process 7. Linear Models – From Risk Factors to Return Forecasts 8. The ML4T Workflow – From Model to Strategy Backtesting 9. Time-Series Models for Volatility Forecasts and Statistical Arbitrage 10. Bayesian ML – Dynamic Sharpe Ratios and Pairs Trading 11. Random Forests – A Long-Short Strategy for Japanese Stocks 12. Boosting Your Trading Strategy 13. Data-Driven Risk Factors and Asset Allocation with Unsupervised Learning 14. Text Data for Trading – Sentiment Analysis 15. Topic Modeling – Summarizing Financial News 16. Word Embeddings for Earnings Calls and SEC Filings 17. Deep Learning for Trading 18. CNNs for Financial Time Series and Satellite Images 19. RNNs for Multivariate Time Series and Sentiment Analysis 20. Autoencoders for Conditional Risk Factors and Asset Pricing 21. Generative Adversarial Networks for Synthetic Time-Series Data 22. Deep Reinforcement Learning – Building a Trading Agent 23. Conclusions and Next Steps 24. References
25. Index
Appendix: Alpha Factor Library

Market and Fundamental Data – Sources and Techniques

Data has always been an essential driver of trading, and traders have long made efforts to gain an advantage from access to superior information. These efforts date back at least to the rumors that the House of Rothschild benefited handsomely from bond purchases upon advance news about the British victory at Waterloo, which was carried by pigeons across the channel.

Today, investments in faster data access take the shape of the Go West consortium of leading high-frequency trading (HFT) firms that connects the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) with Tokyo. The round-trip latency between the CME and the BATS (Better Alternative Trading System) exchanges in New York has dropped to close to the theoretical limit of eight milliseconds as traders compete to exploit arbitrage opportunities. At the same time, regulators and exchanges have started to introduce speed bumps that slow down trading to limit the adverse effects on competition of uneven access to information.

Traditionally, investors mostly relied on publicly available market and fundamental data. Efforts to create or acquire private datasets, for example, through proprietary surveys, were limited. Conventional strategies focus on equity fundamentals and build financial models on reported financials, possibly combined with industry or macro data to project earnings per share and stock prices. Alternatively, they leverage technical analysis to extract signals from market data using indicators computed from price and volume information.

Machine learning (ML) algorithms promise to exploit market and fundamental data more efficiently than human-defined rules and heuristics, particularly when combined with alternative data, which is the topic of the next chapter. We will illustrate how to apply ML algorithms ranging from linear models to recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to market and fundamental data and generate tradeable signals.

This chapter introduces market and fundamental data sources and explains how they reflect the environment in which they are created. The details of the trading environment matter not only for the proper interpretation of market data but also for the design and execution of your strategy and the implementation of realistic backtesting simulations.

We also illustrate how to access and work with trading and financial statement data from various sources using Python.

In particular, this chapter will cover the following topics:

  • How market data reflects the structure of the trading environment
  • Working with trade and quote data at minute frequency
  • Reconstructing an order book from tick data using Nasdaq ITCH
  • Summarizing tick data using various types of bars
  • Working with eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL)-encoded electronic filings
  • Parsing and combining market and fundamental data to create a price-to-earnings (P/E) series
  • How to access various market and fundamental data sources using Python

You can find the code samples for this chapter and links to additional resources in the corresponding directory of the GitHub repository. The notebooks include color versions of the images.

You have been reading a chapter from
Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading - Second Edition
Published in: Jul 2020
Publisher: Packt
ISBN-13: 9781839217715
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