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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Saving a model

In Chapter 10, Uncertainty Intervals, you forecasted the number of crimes per day in the city of Baltimore, using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. This was a long computation, and you were only using daily data. Had you used the Divvy hourly data instead, a dataset more than 10 times larger, the computation would have been even longer. And these two datasets are certainly smaller than many you'll encounter in the real world. If Prophet provided no way to save your work, every time you trained a model, you would have to leave the model in your computer's memory for as long as you wanted to use it.

Maybe you're familiar with the pickle module in Python—this works great to save your trained models in sklearn, for example. However, Prophet uses Stan in the backend to build its models and these Stan objects don't pickle well. Fortunately, Prophet includes some functions to serialize your model in JSON and re-open it later. So, once your...

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