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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Using data with regular gaps

Throughout your career, you may encounter datasets with regular gaps in reporting, particularly when the data was collected by humans who have working hours, personal hours, and sleeping hours. It simply may not be possible to collect measurements with perfect periodicity.

As you will see when we look at outliers in a later chapter, Prophet is robust in handling missing values. However, when that missing data occurs at regular intervals, Prophet will have no training data at all during those gaps to make estimations with. The seasonality will be constrained during periods where data exists but unconstrained during the gaps, and Prophet's predictions can see much larger fluctuations than the actual data displayed. Let's see this in action.

Suppose that Divvy's data had only been collected between the hours of 8am and 6pm each day. We can simulate this by removing data outside these hours from our DataFrame:

df = df[(df['ds&apos...
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