Limiting losses
Martingale is a gambling system in which the stakes are doubled after each loss.
Figure 6.1 – Playing roulette
If you play roulette, bet $10 on red, and you get red, congrats, you’ve won $10. If you get black, you lose the initial $10, then you double down, betting $20 on red. Black is the outcome again; you lose $20, and you bet $40 on red. Red comes and you’ve won $40 minus the row of losses totaling $30, so you’ve actually won $10.
This might seem a smart system until you calculate the budget you need in order to win the $10 that you’ve bet on red after getting black 10 consecutive times. That’s $20+$40+$80+$160+$320+$640+$1,280+$2,560+$5,120+$10,240 = $20,460.
So, would you risk $20,460 to win $10?
What if there are 11 consecutive blacks?
You do the math.
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