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Hands-On Ensemble Learning with R

You're reading from  Hands-On Ensemble Learning with R

Product type Book
Published in Jul 2018
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781788624145
Pages 376 pages
Edition 1st Edition
Languages
Author (1):
Prabhanjan Narayanachar Tattar Prabhanjan Narayanachar Tattar
Profile icon Prabhanjan Narayanachar Tattar
Toc

Table of Contents (17) Chapters close

Hands-On Ensemble Learning with R
Contributors
Preface
1. Introduction to Ensemble Techniques 2. Bootstrapping 3. Bagging 4. Random Forests 5. The Bare Bones Boosting Algorithms 6. Boosting Refinements 7. The General Ensemble Technique 8. Ensemble Diagnostics 9. Ensembling Regression Models 10. Ensembling Survival Models 11. Ensembling Time Series Models 12. What's Next?
Bibliography Index

Core concepts and metrics


The visualization of the time series data has conveyed a similar story in all the examples, from Figure 1 to Figure 7. The trend and seasonality of the observations imply that the future values of the time series are dependent on the current values, and thus we can't assume that the observations are independent of each other. But what does this mean? To reiterate the point, consider the simpler uspop (US population) dataset, the third-right panel display of Figure 7. Here, we don't have a seasonal influence. Now, consider the census year 1900. The population at the next census is certainly not less than in the year 1890, and it is not well beyond the same number of the same year. A similar narrative holds for most time series; for example, if we are recording the maximum temperature of the day. Here, if today's maximum temperature is 42°C, the next day's maximum temperature is highly influenced by this number and it is almost completely ruled out that the next day...

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