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Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R

You're reading from   Hands-On Time Series Analysis with R Perform time series analysis and forecasting using R

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2019
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781788629157
Length 448 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Rami Krispin Rami Krispin
Author Profile Icon Rami Krispin
Rami Krispin
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Table of Contents (14) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and R 2. Working with Date and Time Objects FREE CHAPTER 3. The Time Series Object 4. Working with zoo and xts Objects 5. Decomposition of Time Series Data 6. Seasonality Analysis 7. Correlation Analysis 8. Forecasting Strategies 9. Forecasting with Linear Regression 10. Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing Models 11. Forecasting with ARIMA Models 12. Forecasting with Machine Learning Models 13. Other Books You May Enjoy

Linear regression with ARIMA errors

In Chapter 9, Forecasting with Linear Regression, we saw that with some simple steps, we can utilize a linear regression model as a time series forecasting model. Recall that a general form of the linear regression model can be represented by the following equation:

One of the main assumptions of the linear regression model is that the error term of the series, , is the white noise series (for example, there is no correlation between the residuals and their lags). However, when working with time series data, this assumption is eased as, typically, the model predictors do not explain all the variations of the series, and some patterns are left on the model residuals. An example of the failure of this assumption can be seen while fitting a linear regression model to forecast the AirPassenger series.

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