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Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet

You're reading from   Forecasting Time Series Data with Facebook Prophet Build, improve, and optimize time series forecasting models using the advanced forecasting tool

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Product type Paperback
Published in Mar 2021
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781800568532
Length 270 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Greg Rafferty Greg Rafferty
Author Profile Icon Greg Rafferty
Greg Rafferty
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Table of Contents (18) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Section 1: Getting Started
2. Chapter 1: The History and Development of Time Series Forecasting FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Getting Started with Facebook Prophet 4. Section 2: Seasonality, Tuning, and Advanced Features
5. Chapter 3: Non-Daily Data 6. Chapter 4: Seasonality 7. Chapter 5: Holidays 8. Chapter 6: Growth Modes 9. Chapter 7: Trend Changepoints 10. Chapter 8: Additional Regressors 11. Chapter 9: Outliers and Special Events 12. Chapter 10: Uncertainty Intervals 13. Section 3: Diagnostics and Evaluation
14. Chapter 11: Cross-Validation 15. Chapter 12: Performance Metrics 16. Chapter 13: Productionalizing Prophet 17. Other Books You May Enjoy

Understanding the logistic function

The logistic function generates an S-shaped curve; the equation takes the following form:

Figure 6.2 – The logistic function

Here, L is the maximum value of the curve, k is the logistic growth rate, or steepness, of the curve, and x0 is the x-value of the curve's midpoint.

Taking , , and , the logistic function produces the standard logistic function, seen in the following plot:

Figure 6.3 – The standard logistic function, y = 1 / (1 + e-x)

If you have studied logistic regression or neural networks, you may recognize this as the sigmoid function. Any input value for x, from -∞ to ∞, will be squished into an output value, y, between 0 and 1. This equation is what allows a logistic regression model to accept any input value and output a probability between 0 and 1.

The equation was developed by Pierre François Verhulst, a Belgian mathematician, in a series...

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