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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel

You're reading from   Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel Perform data grouping, linear predictions, and time series machine learning statistics without using code

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Product type Paperback
Published in May 2022
Publisher Packt
ISBN-13 9781803247731
Length 324 pages
Edition 1st Edition
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Author (1):
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Fernando Roque Fernando Roque
Author Profile Icon Fernando Roque
Fernando Roque
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Table of Contents (19) Chapters Close

Preface 1. Part 1 – An Introduction to Machine Learning Functions
2. Chapter 1: Understanding Data Segmentation FREE CHAPTER 3. Chapter 2: Applying Linear Regression 4. Chapter 3: What is Time Series? 5. Part 2 – Grouping Data to Find Segments and Outliers
6. Chapter 4: Introduction to Data Grouping 7. Chapter 5: Finding the Optimal Number of Single Variable Groups 8. Chapter 6: Finding the Optimal Number of Multi-Variable Groups 9. Chapter 7: Analyzing Outliers for Data Anomalies 10. Part 3 – Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
11. Chapter 8: Finding the Relationship between Variables 12. Chapter 9: Building, Training, and Validating a Linear Model 13. Chapter 10: Building, Training, and Validating a Multiple Regression Model 14. Part 4 – Predicting Values with Time Series
15. Chapter 11: Testing Data for Time Series Compliance 16. Chapter 12: Working with Time Series Using the Centered Moving Average and a Trending Component 17. Chapter 13: Training, Validating, and Running the Model 18. Other Books You May Enjoy

Summary

In this chapter, we learned why it's important to find the optimal number of groups before we conduct K-means clustering. Once we have the groups, we analyze whether they are compliant with the best-case scenario for segments having a small standard deviation. Research outliers to find out whether their behavior could lead to further investigation, such as fraud detection.

We need a machine learning function such as K-means clustering to segment data because classifying by simple inspection using a 2D or 3D chart is not practical and is sometimes impossible. Segmentation with three or more variables is more complicated because it is not possible to plot them.

K-means clustering helps us to find the optimal number of segments or groups for our data. The best case is to have segments that are as compact as possible.

Each segment has a mean, or centroid, and its values are supposed to be as close as possible to the centroid. This means that the standard deviation of each segment must be as small as possible.

You need to pay attention to segments with large standard deviations because they could be outliers. This type of value in our dataset could mean a preview for future problems because they have a random and irregular behavior outside the rest of the data's normal execution.

In the next chapter, we will get an introduction to the linear regression supervised machine learning algorithm. Linear regression needs statistical tests for the data to measure its level of relationship and to check whether it is useful for the model. Otherwise, it is not worth building the model.

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Data Forecasting and Segmentation Using Microsoft Excel
Published in: May 2022
Publisher: Packt
ISBN-13: 9781803247731
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