Identifying a problem is one thing, often obvious, but sometimes identifying the underlying cause can be more problematic. Establishing a probable cause is a process that identifies the possible causes of a problem, analyzes their probability of being a cause, and, in the end, identifying one or more causes to investigate further. The overall objective of this process is to identify the probable root causes of the problem. List the probable causes with the simpler or more obvious issues at the top and the more complex and less likely at the bottom.
Working from the prioritized list, top to bottom, begin testing each one to either prove or disprove the probable causes you identified. The possible causes at the top of the list should be the simplest to test. If one of the probabilities proves to be the cause of the problem, the next step is to develop...