Modeling and evaluation

For the modeling and evaluation step, we will focus on three tasks. The first is to produce a univariate forecast model applied to just the surface temperature. The second is to develop a regression model of the surface temperature based on itself and CO2 levels, using that output to inform our work on whether CO2 levels Granger cause the surface temperature anomalies.

Univariate time series forecasting

With this task, the objective is to produce a univariate forecast for the surface temperature, focusing on choosing either a Holt linear trend model or an ARIMA model. We will train the models and determine their predictive accuracy on an out-of-time test set, just like we've done in other learning endeavors. The following...