Explaining probability concepts

If we take a moment to reflect, we'll notice that our everyday lives are full of probabilistic considerations, although not necessarily formalized as such. Examples of probabilistic assessments include choosing to participate in a competition given the limited chance of winning, the team's predictions of winning the championship, statistics that inform us about the probability of death from smoking or failure to use seat belts in the event of a road accident, and the chances of winning in games and lotteries.

In all situations of uncertainty, there is basically a tendency to give a measure of uncertainty that, although indicated in various terms, expresses the intuitive meaning of probability. The fact that probability has an intuitive meaning also means that establishing its rules can, within certain limits, be guided by intuition. However, relying completely on intuition can lead to incorrect conclusions. To avoid reaching incorrect...